shiny pokemon probability
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That was a rate purely for the test, that won't be our actual rate on launch.
I think we can all agree that PokeMMO's value of 1:30,000 is likely the upper-limit of what we'd collectively like to see in a PokemonMMO. We almost certainly won't be making shinies any rarer than that figure.
Your guess of between 1:8,000 - 1:16,000 is reasonable; however, consider the following:
- The higher the odds of the shiny, the less likely players are to find a shiny; therefore, the shiny is more valuable, both sentimentally (the journey required to get to that shiny was long and arduous), and monetarily (the less shinies are available on the market, the more valuable they are [ala Supply & Demand]).
- The lower the odds of the shiny, the more likely players are to find a shiny, making shinies more common and devaluing their worth as a collective.
I kind of like the idea of keeping you all guessing.
I think even more important than the rate is how you design the mechanics that affect shiny hunting.
Using pokemmo's alpha mechanic as an example: each person only gets 1 roll at a wild alpha being shiny, after which their only option to get a shiny alpha is breeding for insane amounts of money. This in my opinion makes the alpha mechanic really unconducive to shiny hunting, since shiny hunters dont really get to put their effort towards a shiny hunt, they are simply restrained to 1 wild encounter every 6 or so hours, or limited by their cash amount, meaning the game itself doesnt let them play the way they'd prefer. While at the same time, they will see shiny alphas constantly encountered by people who werent even shiny hunting them just because of the sheer amount of people that check those alpha swarms.
I believe the big problem with this has to do with the feeling of fairness in shiny hunting, which is related to 2 ideas: That a shiny hunter has to feel like their efforts make it more likely that he'll get his desired shiny, and that when he sees that desired shiny obtained by other people it was their efforts that made it happen.
Alphas in Pokemmo go against both since shiny hunters are artificially limited in the amount of times they can try for a shiny pokemon, and those pokemon are constantly encountered by thousands of players, meaning just by chance one of them will get the shiny, without that being their desired objective, just a byproduct of wanting the alpha for its value in the market.
A game that wants to make shiny hunting feel like a rewarding playstyle I think should avoid this way of artificially increasing rarity, which does result in rarer shinies but those rare shinies are just spread randomly across the population of players, instead it should try to make the rarity of pokemon determined by the difficulty/time commitment of a hunt, like the way single encounter shiny hunting works.
Of course with rng involved you would always see some players get their desired shiny faster than others, but there 100% exist game mechanics that make shiny hunting feel more or less fair, and thats what matters. These mechanics are almost independent of the shiny rate, it could be low like 1/30000, or it could be as high as 1/10000, as long as the encounter mechanics make shiny hunting feel fair then it'll be a fun playstyle.
Using pokemmo's alpha mechanic as an example: each person only gets 1 roll at a wild alpha being shiny, after which their only option to get a shiny alpha is breeding for insane amounts of money. This in my opinion makes the alpha mechanic really unconducive to shiny hunting, since shiny hunters dont really get to put their effort towards a shiny hunt, they are simply restrained to 1 wild encounter every 6 or so hours, or limited by their cash amount, meaning the game itself doesnt let them play the way they'd prefer. While at the same time, they will see shiny alphas constantly encountered by people who werent even shiny hunting them just because of the sheer amount of people that check those alpha swarms.
I believe the big problem with this has to do with the feeling of fairness in shiny hunting, which is related to 2 ideas: That a shiny hunter has to feel like their efforts make it more likely that he'll get his desired shiny, and that when he sees that desired shiny obtained by other people it was their efforts that made it happen.
Alphas in Pokemmo go against both since shiny hunters are artificially limited in the amount of times they can try for a shiny pokemon, and those pokemon are constantly encountered by thousands of players, meaning just by chance one of them will get the shiny, without that being their desired objective, just a byproduct of wanting the alpha for its value in the market.
A game that wants to make shiny hunting feel like a rewarding playstyle I think should avoid this way of artificially increasing rarity, which does result in rarer shinies but those rare shinies are just spread randomly across the population of players, instead it should try to make the rarity of pokemon determined by the difficulty/time commitment of a hunt, like the way single encounter shiny hunting works.
Of course with rng involved you would always see some players get their desired shiny faster than others, but there 100% exist game mechanics that make shiny hunting feel more or less fair, and thats what matters. These mechanics are almost independent of the shiny rate, it could be low like 1/30000, or it could be as high as 1/10000, as long as the encounter mechanics make shiny hunting feel fair then it'll be a fun playstyle.
D
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unpopular opinion, 1/30k is fine xdI think we can all agree that PokeMMO's value of 1:30,000 is likely the upper-limit of what we'd collectively like to see in a PokemonMMO. We almost certainly won't be making shinies any rarer than that figure.
Your guess of between 1:8,000 - 1:16,000 is reasonable; however, consider the following:
I'm personally like to see higher odds than those you have estimated, but only time will tell. Whether or not we publicly release those odds to the community, is another matter entirely.
- The higher the odds of the shiny, the less likely players are to find a shiny; therefore, the shiny is more valuable, both sentimentally (the journey required to get to that shiny was long and arduous), and monetarily (the less shinies are available on the market, the more valuable they are [ala Supply & Demand]).
- The lower the odds of the shiny, the more likely players are to find a shiny, making shinies more common and devaluing their worth as a collective.
I kind of like the idea of keeping you all guessing.
I may be the odd one out here, but I think even odds as high as 1 in 30k are fine as long as there are various well designed methods of shiny hunting that can constitute such a rate well enough.
What I'm saying is hordes in PokéMMO were basically the best/fastest method obviously, and everything else kind of just falls behind hordes after that. That's because every other method is just falling at hunting at that full odds shiny rate and there's nothing else to it. Most people just do hordes since they are not only effectively boosting their shiny odds doing them (as you have multiple encounters at a time) and it's a more efficient use of one's time, but it also requires little to no additional resource investment as well. You don't need to be well situated in that game to hunt hordes effectively. It's also a more reliable source of income on average when it comes to the market on shiny Pokémon.
It's not like chaining of any kind exists with fishing, hatching eggs, etc. What would be nice is more fun and engaging methods of shiny hunting that also can like help your shiny odds out with the more time and effort that you invest and put into a hunt. I mean, it's already one thing to actually have enough motivation as is to really dump time into obtaining something rare, but it's still another thing entirely knowing that no matter what you do it's still all a luck thing and nothing you really do can help you get even a pinch of better odds no matter how much effort that you put into it.
But yeah, implementation of methods and how they work is the most important thing, not so much the rate, but you should rewarded more for grinding/effort and not have luck be what basically solely determines your progress with success (obtaining shiny Pokémon in this case). While having RNG and rare stuff in an MMO is important for the sake of balance and longevity, getting even the rarest and sought after things should not take a sheer amount of luck that you can have absolutely no influence over.
This is just my opinion and what I think though, and it would be great to really have something more unique and different from the other Pokémon MMOs there already are that exist (where most of us are coming from anyway). I know a lot of people I have saw complaining about the rate of shinies in PokéMMO, but I don't think it's just the rate that really makes them complain as much as they do (even though it really just seems that way at face value).
What I'm saying is hordes in PokéMMO were basically the best/fastest method obviously, and everything else kind of just falls behind hordes after that. That's because every other method is just falling at hunting at that full odds shiny rate and there's nothing else to it. Most people just do hordes since they are not only effectively boosting their shiny odds doing them (as you have multiple encounters at a time) and it's a more efficient use of one's time, but it also requires little to no additional resource investment as well. You don't need to be well situated in that game to hunt hordes effectively. It's also a more reliable source of income on average when it comes to the market on shiny Pokémon.
It's not like chaining of any kind exists with fishing, hatching eggs, etc. What would be nice is more fun and engaging methods of shiny hunting that also can like help your shiny odds out with the more time and effort that you invest and put into a hunt. I mean, it's already one thing to actually have enough motivation as is to really dump time into obtaining something rare, but it's still another thing entirely knowing that no matter what you do it's still all a luck thing and nothing you really do can help you get even a pinch of better odds no matter how much effort that you put into it.
But yeah, implementation of methods and how they work is the most important thing, not so much the rate, but you should rewarded more for grinding/effort and not have luck be what basically solely determines your progress with success (obtaining shiny Pokémon in this case). While having RNG and rare stuff in an MMO is important for the sake of balance and longevity, getting even the rarest and sought after things should not take a sheer amount of luck that you can have absolutely no influence over.
This is just my opinion and what I think though, and it would be great to really have something more unique and different from the other Pokémon MMOs there already are that exist (where most of us are coming from anyway). I know a lot of people I have saw complaining about the rate of shinies in PokéMMO, but I don't think it's just the rate that really makes them complain as much as they do (even though it really just seems that way at face value).
As Alycia mentioned in her FAQ Post...
So, slightly less than the previously discussed PokeMMO rate of 1:30,000. But higher than the original poster described in their post.
Feel free to continue the discussion in this thread, regarding this topic, as the FAQ post is an Announcement post and therefore has replies turned off.
What will the Shiny Rate be?
- Our finalized Shiny Rate has been locked in. The final rate will be 1/20,480, and will feature a pity system.
- The Pity System will decrease the overall rate, as opposed to instantly giving you the shiny. As an example, if you were to encounter 500 Pikachu, the pity system will then start scaling down the overall rate, to where it would become 1/20,230.
- The Pity System works on specific Pokemon. So for example, encountering 500 Pikachu increases the odds to encounter a Shiny Pikachu, but will not affect the odds for a Shiny Pidgey (unless you have encountered Pidgeys).
- Boosts will be available through gameplay and donations.
So, slightly less than the previously discussed PokeMMO rate of 1:30,000. But higher than the original poster described in their post.
Feel free to continue the discussion in this thread, regarding this topic, as the FAQ post is an Announcement post and therefore has replies turned off.
Shiny rates TBD; however, Breeding highly likely won't be done in the traditional Pokemon format.
For more information, check out this specific thread on Breeding.
When you say odds can change with gameplay is that just referring to the pity system or are there other mechanics that will affect it?
And regarding the pity system. Do all the different pokemon rates go back to 1/20480 after finding ANY shiny or are my odds boosted forever until I find a shiny of that particular species?
To your first question: Both.
Specifically regarding the Pity System, it will be locked to that particular Pokemon:
If you encounter a shiny Pikachu, only your Pikachu encounters will reset, it won't reset your 'Pity' score for your other Pokemon encounters.
Is 1/20230 the minimum or could you theoretically get so unlucky that your pity score drops to a near guaranteed shiny
? On a slightly different note I'm curious why the game went with a pity system from a game design standpoint. Not because I disagree but just that game design topics like this are interesting to me. I dont really know the pros/cons of a system like this but I'm curious as to what could cause pokemmo, for example, to be so vehemently against adding one.
The 1/20230 was just an example afaik, it goes lower than that, it does have a cap, although I dont know if they've revealed what the cap is gonna be yet, dont think so.Is 1/20230 the minimum or could you theoretically get so unlucky that your pity score drops to a near guaranteed shiny
On a slightly different note I'm curious why the game went with a pity system from a game design standpoint. Not because I disagree but just that game design topics like this are interesting to me. I dont really know the pros/cons of a system like this but I'm curious as to what could cause pokemmo, for example, to be so vehemently against adding one.
TL;DR: The cap has been revealed to be 1/20,230 in the FAQ. I'd like to see the cap be closer to the traditional games of 1/8192, but the pity system should only be in effect after the player has 20,480 encounters for a specific pokemon. I want the pity system to have a purpose/feel rewarding.
I think what would be fair is the shiny rate getting capped at 1/8192 after 40,960 total encounters for that species.
The shiny odds to raising from 1/20,480 to 1/20,230 seems too minuscule of a system even to be relevant. With my proposed system, we can pay homage to the traditional games and make the pity system feel purposeful.
Of course, 1/8k might be too low for some. Consider this: my system would require the player to go through the 20,480 encounters before the pity system does anything. This means the player's hunt would be "dry" before getting rewarded. I believe grinding an extra 20,480 encounters would be enough of an achievement to warrant a significant shiny rate bump.
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I agree. I really don't think players are going to be happy with this.
Or just have no pity system, tbh.
Edit: I changed my opinion. While I still think the current pity system plan is a bit silly, I think players should be rewarded in another way that doesn't affect the shiny rate.
Things like once reaching the shiny rate, you can randomly obtain rare points/tokens that can be used to purchase exclusive cosmetics/boosts. This will keep people interested in their shunting while still rewarding them for their efforts, and depending on the rewards, may be more sought after and rarer than shinies.
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There's a hidden issue, which is whether PF has group fight.
This is too important for farming Shiny.
This is too important for farming Shiny.